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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


North Carolina A&T

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:238.0
Current RPI:238
Expected SOS:346
Current SOS:346
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:13-6
Expected Conf Record:13-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-8
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:201
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14238.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina A&T.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Clemson (11.0)ACCA87-63L0%0.0
11-15The Citadel (281.0)SCH92-73W100%0.0
11-18Jacksonville (286.0)ASunA82-90W100%0.0
11-26East Carolina (274.0)AmerA81-87W100%0.0
11-30Central Connecticut (263.0)NECA72-59L0%0.0
12-2Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA73-70L0%0.0
12-9Georgetown (169.0)BEA83-74L0%0.0
12-15Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCH64-54W100%0.0
12-17Duquesne (259.0)A10A74-58L0%0.0
12-19Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCA102-64L0%0.0
12-22Radford (128.0)BSthN66-60L0%0.0
12-23Lamar (230.0)SlndN70-74W100%0.0
12-28Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA76-59L0%0.0
1-8Delaware St. (351.0)MEACA66-76W100%0.0
1-13Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH69-67W100%0.0
1-15Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH60-47W100%0.0
1-18Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACH71-68W100%0.0
1-20Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACA64-66W100%0.0
1-22Howard (339.0)MEACA90-88L0%0.0
1-27North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH70-64W100%0.0
2-3Hampton (237.0)MEACH92-84W100%0.0
2-5Delaware St. (351.0)MEACH54-51W100%0.0
2-10South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA90-85L0%0.0
2-12Savannah St. (197.0)MEACA108-106L0%0.0
2-17Howard (339.0)MEACH83-69W100%0.0
2-19Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH78-69W100%0.0
2-24Florida A&M (332.0)MEACA83-77L0%0.0
2-26Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA80-86W100%0.0
3-1North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACA70-59L0%0.0
3-5Delaware St. (351.0)MEACN62-61W100%0.0
3-8Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACN64-70W100%0.0
3-9Hampton (237.0)MEACN96-86L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina A&T's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina A&T's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina A&T.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina A&TMEAC26.2326.2363.4963.497.087.08
Delaware St.MEAC5.255.257.417.41-4.47-4.47
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.873.8751.7251.720.130.13
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.813.8117.8617.86-2.45-2.45
HamptonMEAC3.763.7651.7251.720.130.13
Norfolk St.MEAC3.743.7446.4346.43-0.27-0.27
HowardMEAC3.743.7424.1424.14-1.93-1.93
Florida A&MMEAC2.312.3121.8821.88-1.30-1.30
Coppin St.MEAC2.282.2816.1316.13-1.54-1.54
Morgan St.MEAC2.282.2837.9337.93-0.55-0.55
South Carolina St.MEAC2.262.2624.1424.14-1.17-1.17
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.232.2355.1755.170.230.23
Savannah St.MEAC2.232.2341.3841.38-0.38-0.38
DuquesneA101.751.7548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Virginia TechACC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
GeorgetownBE1.721.7248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer1.711.7134.4834.48-0.53-0.53
RadfordBSth1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
PresbyterianBSth1.661.6625.0025.00-0.83-0.83
JacksonvilleASun1.641.6439.2939.29-0.35-0.35
Southern IllinoisMVC1.611.6158.0658.060.260.26
Central ConnecticutNEC1.611.6141.9441.94-0.26-0.26
LamarSlnd1.611.6155.5655.560.180.18
ClemsonACC1.591.5970.9770.970.670.67
The CitadelSC1.591.5928.5728.57-0.68-0.68
Tennessee St.OVC1.561.5648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.180.1857.1457.140.030.03
George WashingtonA100.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.170.1793.9493.940.150.15
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
VMISC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
CampbellBSth0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
PittsburghACC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Georgia TechACC0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
High PointBSth0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
LongwoodBSth0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
LipscombASun0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1132.0032.00-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
St. John'sBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
DrakeMVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
St. BonaventureA100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
George MasonA100.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Saint LouisA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
TroySB0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
Ohio St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0732.3532.35-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
KansasB120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
HartfordAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01